Rumours of War

I have become obsessed with the war in Iraq…

… and the potential war in Iran.

My little library of books regarding the war and the Bush administration has grown to three shelves. While most of the titles favour my own view – that the war is wrong and a blot on humanity – a few titles represent the “other view”. I do try to understand all points of view. With each passing day, that gets harder and harder to do.

Sunday morning, I got up and opened the computer, heading to my daily read of SALON articles, especially the column of Glenn Greenwald. He also wrote one of the books on my shelves – A TERRIBLE LEGACY. After that bit of cheer, it was time to let the dogs out for a morning romp and piddle and then a brief glance at the Sunday morning news programs. Henry Kissinger was on THE LAST WORD, the CNN news Sunday news program with Wolf Blitzer. The topic – bombing Iran. Knowing Kissinger had the ear of Bush II, I listened with some horror as the party line was unfolded.

I greatly admire the work of Gwynne Dryer, a military historian and writer. He has written three books on this war. IGNORANT ARMIES. FUTURE TENSE, and now THE MESS THEY MADE. The first was written before the war, the second in 2004 and revised in 06, and the last in the current year. Dryer, unlike Rumsfeld and Cheney, has been very accurate in his predictions.

It certainly seems as if the Bush administration is determined to go out with a bang. Currently, one report says Bush has decided against the war with Iran, but with US troops patrolling the border and Israel itching to send in bombers, anything could turn the area into a mess.

I recently posted the following to one group:

“Many countries have what is called "threshold nuclear weapons capability".
That is, they have the ability to enrich uranium to the degree necessary for
use in power reactors, just like Canada, Brazil, Germany and Australia
(there are forty such countries). Each of these countries could, if they
wished, "ramp up" the enrichment process to build a bomb. As I understand
it, civil (industrial) use only needs about 20% or less pure, weapons need
90% plus pure. Under the Nuclear non-proliferation Treaty, countries who do this then allow IAEA inspectors in to make sure that only the lower grade is being produced. Under the treaty, any country may opt out on three month's notice and proceed with a bomb.

As with Iraq, the USA demanded vigorous inspection by the IAEA. They found no evidence of weapons building of treaty violation. That was confirmed as recently as February of this year.

Contrast that with current statements of Bush and Cheney.

Now, "Iran wants to exterminate Jews in Israel".

Not quite true. The statement was made in Pharisee in October 05. What was
actually said as translated was that "the regime occupying Jerusalem must
vanish from the pages of history". Many regimes have done so - the regime
in Moscow, East Berlin and many others. Indeed, the speech refers to these,
as well as the regime of Saddam Hussein. It does to mean the people are
eliminated, but that the regime is stopped. He was proposing the "one state
solution" to the Israel/Palestine conflicts - a vote by everyone in the
former Palestine.

Bush and his confederates have distorted this to the "elimination of Jews".

This is sounding more and more like the pre-Iraq distortions. As a lame
duck, Bush can go quietly or roll the dice hoping for a biggie prior to 08.
If his past is any way to predict his future, the dice throw seems very
possible.”

And SALON had the following article in today’s edition:

http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/09/24/ahmadinejad/print.html

This is indeed scary stuff. The war drums in the media are beating as loudly as they did prior to Iraq, and with the same type of lies being advances as a reason for “pre-emptive attack”. Iran would retain the ability to sink tankers in the Gulf and thus oil prices would skyrocket. Oh eyes, the latest word is to expect an “October roll out” for the new product. War, that is…

Somewhere, I forget where, the oil deal mentioned in the SALON article had another item. A pipeline from Iran to China, certainly not what the Americans wish to see.

To me, the war in Iraq was a “perfect storm” type of scenario. A naïve U.S. president with no foreign affairs experience, bad advisors with an agenda that had not been accepted, a desire for revenge (the assassination attempt) and glory (war president), and, of course, oil. Not to bring the oil into the USA, for Canada supplies most of that, but to control it, especially with China. By 2040, barring unforeseen problems, China will be a superpower, India shortly after that. The USA now has a military technology agreement with India, but China? Not forgetting the stated desire of the neo-cons to retain American status as the sole superpower as long as possible, China also owns most of the US debt. Hmmmm…

It bothers me – it really bothers me – that the United States is once again moving towards a war not for its own interests, but for those of Israel. As has been commented on by many, the neo-cons have two factions. One of those is very pro-Israel and is, not surprisingly, mostly if not exclusively Jewish. No, this is not an anti-Semitic statement; it is simply the truth. Pearl, Wolfowitz, Firth and many more are Lukid party supporters in Israeli politics. The list of these is a long one. They offer advice to Israel often yet occupied major policy chairs in the USA. As Dyer has written, it is possible that when Americans find themselves in yet another war, they might be very upset to find that it is waged not in the interests of the United States, which has a large “stay-at-home” minded population, but on behalf of Israel. If indeed Iran does or is on the cusp of having a bomb, such a bomb would not be intended to be used against the USA but might be used against (or more correctly, to counter the threat of) the 200 or so nuclear weapons of Israel.

Another thought as a result of today’s news. The Americans, especially the reporter on “60 Minutes” last night, are very upset that Iran is providing weapons to the anti-American types in Iraq. Mad enough to go to war, it seems. Now, in the many, many years of the Cold War and continuing today, how many countries has the United States armed? In particular, how many countries pick up their planes, tanks and very sophisticated weapons from the USA? In days past, both the former USSR and the USA armed many countries and insurgents. This is unhappily part of life, and the USA is the biggest arms broker in the world. It recently announced massive sales to both Israel and Saudi Arabia. Israel, who recently invaded and destroyed Lebanon; Saudi Arabia, a religious monarchy with no democratic leanings. And the US is mad at Iran for possibly providing some weapons to Shiite militia? Sorry, but if that is Bush’s reason for war, or even one of them, it speaks of the weakness of the American reasons for a war against Iran. Another false front, as we saw so recently in Iraq.

The drums, the same drums we heard four years ago, are beating. I hope they do no more that sound. It is not only Americans who will suffer as a result of the drums, but the whole world.